Upcoming Predictions
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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Trump is convicted in relation to the mishandling of classified information case, by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] > $6.1 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2021-07-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 ( 70% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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“age of onset of 12 years” will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2025 ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26; known on 2025-01-02.
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I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-02.
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I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known on 2025-01-02.
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SPR below 341M by end of 2024 ( 90% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2025-01-10.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.
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The helical engine works ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-10-15; known on 2025-01-16.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2025-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2025-01-16.
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[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-22; known on 2025-01-20.